By combining scenario planning and Bayesian thinking \u2013 in essence, using probabilistic rather than deterministic methods \u2013 Professor Chevallier says senior executives can bolster their decision-making abilities, enabling them to move forward.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t predict the future but you can plan for it,\u201d says Professor Chevallier. \u201cDefine the future scenarios, prepare for them and then adapt!\u201d<\/p>\n
Here are the top ten takeaways from Agile decision-making \u2013 deciding when you don\u2019t have all the facts that can help senior leaders make better choices in uncertain times:<\/p>\n
Think of the futures, not of the future<\/strong> Determine what\u2019s behind the curtain<\/strong> Plan your success<\/strong> Forget about efficiency<\/strong> Focus on effectiveness<\/strong> Decide on your approach<\/strong> Prepare a wide launch<\/strong> Change your mind<\/strong> Order your doors<\/strong> Embrace an uncertain future<\/strong> Source: https:\/\/www.imd.org\/research-knowledge\/videos\/Agile-decision-making-deciding-when-you-dont-have-all-the-facts\/?utm_medium=em&utm_source=DME&utm_campaign=LTT_webinars&utm_term=Event&utm_content=Reminder<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Channel your inner Jeff Bezos and make decisions that permit your organization to be forceful yet flexible, says IMD Professor of Strategy Arnaud Chevallier. By combining scenario planning and Bayesian thinking \u2013 in essence, using probabilistic rather than deterministic methods \u2013 Professor Chevallier says senior executives can bolster their decision-making abilities, enabling them to move […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,16],"tags":[63,21],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25410"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25410"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25410\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25411,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25410\/revisions\/25411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wealinternational.com.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nIdentify the full range of possible ways the future might look like six months or even one year from now, from a worst-case scenario to a best-case one.<\/p>\n
\nOut of the plethora of forces out there, identify the two or three that have the most influence on the future. Then continuously monitor those forces to determine their intensity and in which direction they are pushing the future.<\/p>\n
\nDevelop an action plan that will enable you to be successful for different scenarios, so that you\u2019re prepared no matter what the future might look like \u2013 whether that\u2019s the best- or worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n
\nEfficiency requires only one plan in order to avoid wasting resources. While this lean operations style is sensible under normal operating circumstances, it\u2019s not appropriate when uncertainty skyrockets.<\/p>\n
\nEffectiveness is being prepared for whatever might unfold; it requires thinking broadly and having plans of action for each scenario. But as the future, especially in these times, is highly uncertain, you should aim for effectiveness rather than efficiency \u2013 at least at the onset.<\/p>\n
\nMove away from a Boolean \u2013 i.e. black and white \u2013 approach to a Bayesian approach where there are shades of grey. Bayesian thinking is rooted in probability \u2013 one version of the future becomes more probable even though it remains a grey area.<\/p>\n
\nRoll out several plans of action initially, but as more data becomes available, stop investing in these unnecessary or irrelevant action plans. By gradually narrowing down your rollout, you re-introduce efficiency in your operations.<\/p>\n
\nAs new evidence unfolds, update your thinking. This will require you changing your mind, which is perfectly acceptable and, in fact, the only reasonable way to act, when circumstances change.<\/p>\n
\nJeff Bezos \u2013 love him or hate him \u2013 has a great way to classify decisions: some are one-way doors (irreversible) while others are two-way doors (reversible). Order your decisions so that you make the irreversible ones later, when you have acquired a better understanding of what the future will be.<\/p>\n
\nEven if a perfect storm like COVID-19 appears, organizations can weather it by making the best out of what\u2019s happening to them. Success exists even in the worst case; maybe that\u2019s simply avoiding bankruptcy, for example, but being hit by a perfect storm doesn\u2019t mean you\u2019ll fail. You have a chance to shine no matter the environment, it\u2019s your job to recognize it and make it happen.<\/p>\n